Report Card — Week 6
Other weeks: Week 1 · Week 2 · Week 3 · Week 4 · Week 5 · All weeks
In progress5-838% covered1 still to play
| Game | Pick | Line | Final | Cover | Cause | What happened |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA @ DEN | DEN | +2.5 | 14-17 | +5.5 | — | 5.5 points to the good for Broncos, about how we saw it. |
| HOU @ JAX | JAX | -2.5 | 34-31 | -5.5 | Model error | Texans covered by 5.5. That one is on the model, not the bounces. |
| BAL @ CLE | BAL | -4.5 | 10-13 | -7.5 | Late news | The line moved 1.5 toward Browns after we picked, and the market was right. |
| CAR @ PHI | CAR | +1.5 | 25-14 | +12.5 | — | Panthers cleared +1.5 with room to spare. |
| CHI @ ATL | ATL | +3 | 31-23 | -5 | Model error | We misread this game; backing Falcons cost us 5 points. |
| NO @ NYG | NYG | +1.5 | 34-27 | -5.5 | Model error | A real miss. Saints were the better side by 5.5 points. |
| NYJ @ NE | NYJ | +7.5 | 19-26 | +0.5 | Lucky hit | Jets squeaked past +7.5 by 0.5; we will take it. |
| PIT @ TB | TB | +2.5 | 26-19 | -4.5 | Model error | Buccaneers never got close, finishing 4.5 short. |
| TEN @ IND | TEN | +7 | 26-20 | +13 | — | Never in doubt: Titans won the spread by 13. |
| ARI @ LA | LA | -12.5 | 18-16 | -14.5 | Model error | Wrong side, plainly. Cardinals were 14.5 points better than -12.5 said. |
| BUF @ LV | BUF | -5 | 33-30 | -2 | Luck | Raiders got over by 2. One bounce from a win. |
| LAC @ KC | KC | -8.5 | 6-22 | +7.5 | — | Chiefs did the work early and covered by 7.5. |
| DAL @ GB | DAL | +1.5 | 13-23 | -8.5 | Model error | Our 51% confidence in Cowboys did not hold up. |
Changed afterward
- 2026-10-15: The score model now publishes the posted total as its most likely total, so predicted scores stop drifting away from the market's number (Thursday's total went from 43.3 to 40.5). (PR #32)
- 2026-10-16: A week entered on Yahoo by hand is recorded pick by pick, and its tiebreakers are kept exactly as entered instead of being worked out again. (PR #35)
Built from our picks, final scores, the posted line and the closing line; the Score Model postmortems replace this once they are published.