Report Card — Week 2
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D8-850% covered
We covered 50% of decided picks, and 50% once the close calls are evened out. That is below the 52% we need to break even, so it earns a D. Of the 8 misses, 7 were our own error and 1 was bad luck.
| Game | Pick | Line | Final | Cover | Cause | What happened |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET @ BUF | BUF | -4.5 | 31-41 | +5.5 | — | We took Bills -4.5 and Bills won 41-31. We finished 6 points past the line. |
| CAR @ ATL | CAR | -2.5 | 34-3 | +28.5 | — | A clean cover, 29 points to the good. Panthers won the turnover battle by 5. |
| CIN @ HOU | HOU | -2.5 | 20-6 | -16.5 | Model error | A clear miss, 17 points short of the line. |
| CLE @ TB | TB | -8.5 | 23-19 | -12.5 | Model error | Browns covered by 12.5. That one is on the model, not the bounces. |
| GB @ NYJ | GB | -3.5 | 20-17 | -0.5 | Luck | One more score and this was a cover; we missed by half a point. Packers gave the ball away 1 more time than Jets. |
| MIN @ CHI | CHI | -5.5 | 9-3 | -11.5 | Model error | We got this game wrong by 12 points against the spread. Turnovers went against Bears, minus 2. |
| NO @ BAL | NO | +8.5 | 24-17 | +15.5 | — | Turnovers favoured Saints, plus 1. |
| PHI @ TEN | TEN | +7 | 24-20 | +3 | Lucky hit | A late score either way flips this one; we covered by 3 points. |
| PIT @ NE | NE | -4.5 | 3-20 | +12.5 | — | Patriots cleared -4.5 with room to spare. |
| JAX @ DEN | DEN | -2.5 | 13-20 | +4.5 | — | That cleared the number by 5 points. |
| LV @ LAC | LAC | -6.5 | 26-14 | -18.5 | Model error | We missed the line by 19 points, too wide to call bad luck. |
| MIA @ SF | MIA | +13.5 | 13-35 | -8.5 | Model error | This one was on us: we were 9 points wrong against the line. |
| SEA @ ARI | SEA | -4 | 31-7 | +20 | — | Never in doubt: Seahawks won the spread by 20. |
| WAS @ DAL | WAS | +4 | 20-37 | -13 | Model error | We misread this game; backing Commanders cost us 13 points. |
| IND @ KC | IND | +6.5 | 30-33 | +3.5 | — | Solid result: Colts finished 3.5 to the good. |
| NYG @ LA | NYG | +7.5 | 6-28 | -14.5 | Model error | Giants came out 1 ahead on turnovers. |
Changed afterward
- 2026-09-26: We started freezing our score projections before kickoff and grading them after each final week. (PR #4)
- 2026-09-26: We started saving injury, depth chart, weather and line snapshots before every kickoff, so a pick can be checked later against what we knew at the time. (PR #11)
- 2026-09-26: We started collecting weather and matchup splits, kept out of the score model until they prove they help. (PR #12)
Explanations from the Score Model postmortems.