Report Card — Week 1
Other weeks: Week 2 · Week 3 · Week 4 · Week 5 · Week 6 · All weeks
B10-663% covered
We covered 63% of decided picks, and 59% once the close calls are evened out. That is well clear of the 52% we need to break even, so it earns a B. Of the 6 misses, 5 were our own error and 1 was bad luck.
| Game | Pick | Line | Final | Cover | Cause | What happened |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE @ SEA | SEA | -3.5 | 10-13 | -0.5 | Luck | We took Seahawks -3.5 and Seahawks won 13-10. We missed the line by just half a point, well inside one score, so this was mostly bad luck. |
| SF @ LA | SF | +3.5 | 27-7 | +23.5 | — | A clean cover, 24 points to the good. 49ers came out 1 ahead on turnovers. |
| ATL @ PIT | PIT | -3.5 | 13-20 | +3.5 | — | We beat the spread by 4 points. Turnovers favoured Steelers, plus 1. |
| BAL @ IND | BAL | -3.5 | 41-23 | +14.5 | — | We finished 15 points past the line. |
| BUF @ HOU | BUF | -1.5 | 36-31 | +3.5 | — | We covered by 4 points, comfortably clear of the line. Bills won the turnover battle by 2. |
| CHI @ CAR | CHI | -2.5 | 59-37 | +19.5 | — | That cleared the number by 20 points. |
| CLE @ JAX | JAX | -8.5 | 10-34 | +15.5 | — | Jaguars cleared -8.5 with room to spare. |
| NO @ DET | DET | -7 | 30-31 | -6 | Model error | We got this game wrong by 6 points against the spread. |
| NYJ @ TEN | TEN | -1.5 | 23-10 | -14.5 | Model error | Turnovers went against Titans, minus 1. |
| TB @ CIN | CIN | -3.5 | 27-33 | +2.5 | Lucky hit | It was close: we got there by 3 points. Buccaneers scored a defensive or return touchdown. |
| ARI @ LAC | LAC | -10 | 26-14 | -22 | Model error | The line moved 1.5 toward Cardinals after we picked, and the market was right. |
| GB @ MIN | MIN | -1.5 | 22-39 | +15.5 | — | Vikings did the work early and covered by 15.5. |
| MIA @ LV | MIA | +3.5 | 13-27 | -10.5 | Model error | A clear miss, 11 points short of the line. |
| WAS @ PHI | WAS | +5 | 22-24 | +3 | Lucky hit | Solid result: Commanders finished 3 to the good. |
| DAL @ NYG | NYG | +2.5 | 20-28 | +10.5 | — | Giants handled it, finishing 10.5 past the line. |
| DEN @ KC | DEN | +3 | 10-31 | -18 | Model error | This one was on us: we were 18 points wrong against the line. Broncos gave the ball away 1 more time than Chiefs. |
Changed afterward
- 2026-09-13: Injury reports now feed every pick. Before this, seven clubs were being treated as if nobody on the roster was hurt.
Explanations from the Score Model postmortems.