Report Card — Week 5
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C10-567% covered
We covered 67% of decided picks, and 57% once the close calls are evened out. That clears the 52% we need to break even, but not by enough for a B, so it earns a C. Of the 5 misses, 5 were our own error.
| Game | Pick | Line | Final | Cover | Cause | What happened |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB @ DAL | TB | +8.5 | 24-16 | +16.5 | — | We took Buccaneers +8.5 and Buccaneers won 24-16. We finished 17 points past the line. |
| PHI @ JAX | PHI | +7.5 | 17-19 | +5.5 | — | We covered by 6 points, comfortably clear of the line. Our projection had Eagles losing by about 9, and we missed the final margin by about 7 points. |
| CHI @ GB | CHI | -2.5 | 7-31 | -26.5 | Model error | A clear miss, 27 points short of the line. Bears gave the ball away 5 more times than Packers. |
| CIN @ MIA | MIA | +7.5 | 31-24 | +0.5 | Lucky hit | We sneaked past the number by half a point. Dolphins lost the turnover battle by 2. |
| CLE @ NYJ | NYJ | -2.5 | 12-17 | +2.5 | Lucky hit | We cleared the line by just 3 points, a cover we were lucky to keep. |
| HOU @ TEN | TEN | +7.5 | 26-3 | -15.5 | Model error | We got this game wrong by 16 points against the spread. Turnovers went against Titans, minus 2. |
| IND @ PIT | PIT | -2.5 | 22-34 | +9.5 | — | That cleared the number by 10 points. |
| LV @ NE | LV | +3.5 | 17-45 | -24.5 | Model error | We missed the line by 25 points, too wide to call bad luck. |
| MIN @ NO | NO | +1.5 | 23-13 | -8.5 | Model error | This one was on us: we were 9 points wrong against the line. |
| NYG @ WAS | NYG | +3.5 | 27-27 | +3.5 | — | 3.5 points to the good for Giants, about how we saw it. |
| DEN @ LAC | DEN | -3.5 | 23-17 | +2.5 | Lucky hit | Broncos squeaked past -3.5 by 2.5; we will take it. |
| DET @ ARI | DET | -5.5 | 45-21 | +18.5 | — | We beat the spread by 19 points. Lions came out 1 ahead on turnovers. |
| SF @ SEA | SF | +3 | 32-29 | +6 | — | Turnovers favoured 49ers, plus 1. |
| BAL @ ATL | ATL | -3.5 | 30-23 | -10.5 | Model error | Ravens covered by 10.5. That one is on the model, not the bounces. |
| BUF @ LA | BUF | +3 | 37-34 | +6 | — | Solid result: Bills finished 6 to the good. |
Changed afterward
- 2026-10-13: The rankings pop-ups now explain each position grade from stored player numbers, injuries and roster changes, rewritten in plain English in #29. (PR #28)
- 2026-10-14: Tiebreakers are now kept to their own week, and our pick reviews are graded against the spread we submitted instead of the straight-up winner. (PR #30)
- 2026-10-15: Our most-likely game total is now the posted betting total, because over 1,496 past games our own totals missed the final by about 11.05 points against 10.35 for the posted number. (PR #32)
Explanations from the Score Model postmortems.