Report Card — Week 3
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B11-569% covered
We covered 69% of decided picks, and 63% once the close calls are evened out. That is well clear of the 52% we need to break even, so it earns a B. Of the 5 misses, 3 were our own error and 2 were bad luck.
| Game | Pick | Line | Final | Cover | Cause | What happened |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL @ GB | ATL | +5.5 | 35-14 | +26.5 | — | We took Falcons +5.5 and Falcons won 35-14. That cleared the number by 27 points. |
| CAR @ CLE | CLE | +2.5 | 18-21 | +5.5 | — | We finished 6 points past the line. Our projection had Browns winning by about 1, and we missed the final margin by about 2 points. |
| CIN @ PIT | PIT | +3.5 | 27-30 | +6.5 | — | We beat the spread by 7 points. Steelers won the turnover battle by 1. |
| HOU @ IND | HOU | -2.5 | 17-19 | -4.5 | Model error | This one was on us: we were 5 points wrong against the line. |
| KC @ MIA | MIA | +11.5 | 24-10 | -2.5 | Luck | It slipped away by 3 points, the kind of miss one play decides. Turnovers went against Dolphins, minus 1. |
| LAC @ BUF | BUF | -7 | 16-24 | +1 | Lucky hit | Bills squeaked past -7 by 1; we will take it. |
| NE @ JAX | JAX | -3 | 6-35 | +26 | — | A clean cover, 26 points to the good. Turnovers favoured Jaguars, plus 2. |
| NYJ @ DET | DET | -6.5 | 24-31 | +0.5 | Lucky hit | We covered by only half a point, so this one could easily have gone the other way. Lions came out 1 ahead on turnovers. |
| SEA @ WAS | WAS | +7 | 31-33 | +9 | — | We covered by 9 points, comfortably clear of the line. |
| TEN @ NYG | NYG | -2.5 | 7-12 | +2.5 | Lucky hit | It was close: we got there by 3 points. |
| ARI @ SF | ARI | +8.5 | 30-36 | +2.5 | Lucky hit | Too close for comfort, but Cardinals got over. |
| MIN @ TB | TB | +1.5 | 23-16 | -5.5 | Model error | A clear miss, 6 points short of the line. Buccaneers gave the ball away 1 more time than Vikings. |
| BAL @ DAL | BAL | -3.5 | 34-31 | -0.5 | Luck | We fell half a point short, close enough to put down to luck. |
| LV @ NO | NO | -3 | 35-27 | -11 | Model error | Raiders covered by 11. That one is on the model, not the bounces. |
| LA @ DEN | DEN | +2.5 | 26-30 | +6.5 | — | Solid result: Broncos finished 6.5 to the good. |
| PHI @ CHI | CHI | +4.5 | 7-27 | +24.5 | — | Bears cleared +4.5 with room to spare. |
Changed afterward
- 2026-10-02: We added pre-kick matchup features to the record without changing the live score model's weights. (PR #17)
Explanations from the Score Model postmortems.