What stood out

Notes from numbers measured for this build: the betting prices, how the pool is leaning, how each group graded, and how the model has actually done.

• The pool is heavier on ARI than the market is

  50% of the people in the pool took ARI against LA, while the betting prices put that side at 14% — 36 points apart. You win a pool by being right when other people are wrong, so a side everybody took is worth less than its chance of winning, and a side fewer people took is worth more. This says where the entrants are. It is not telling you to take the other side.

  Betting markets

• Where the pool is leaning hardest

  The heaviest lean in the pool is PHI at TEN, where 13% of the people in it took the home side. These percentages come from the pool itself and go away once the week is played, so they are saved before kickoff each week.

  The pool

• LA is the week's biggest favourite

  Across 3 independent markets — the sportsbook line and the prediction exchanges — LA is priced at 86% to beat ARI. In a survivor pool you only need to stay alive, so the biggest favourite is usually the safest pick of the week, and the one you least want to use up early, because you only get each club once.

  Betting markets

• SF blocks best, PIT worst

  Graded on the two things a line actually controls: SF allowed pressure on — of dropbacks and averaged 3.39 yards before contact on runs, with 5 linemen playing nearly every snap. PIT sits at — pressure allowed and 2.22 yards before contact. Yards before contact is the line's work; what happens after belongs to the back.

  Team grades

• CAR rose the most this week, LA fell the furthest

  This is the change from last week to this week, not the slower move since the preseason. CAR's overall grade climbed 2.9 points from week 5 to week 6, the biggest gain in the league. LA dropped the most, down 1.9 over the same week. Every team, every week, is on /rankings/trends.

  Team grades

• What the model is actually worth

  On games it had never seen before, the model picks 66.5% and the betting market picks 66.4%. It does not beat the market, and we don't pretend it does. The full working, including everything that failed, is on the Model page.

  The model

• How much is actually riding on these prices

  This week's game markets have 14,940,315 contracts traded on Kalshi and $4,000,384 on Polymarket, across 14 games. A market nobody has bet still shows a price. We only treat that price as a real chance when people have actually traded it and the buy and sell prices are close, and we keep both numbers so you can check.

  Betting markets

Every sentence here is built from those numbers, and the numbers stay in the sentence so you can check them. Nobody writes them by hand, and a chatbot doesn't either. The site puts them together from the data.

The Betting Markets

Four ways of looking at the same game, each as the home team's chance. Vegas is the sportsbook's odds with the book's cut taken out, so it reads as a real chance. Kalshi andPolymarket are prices two people agreed on with their own money. Pool is how many Yahoo players took the home team. That's what the crowd did, not a probability.

Every percentage is the chance the home team wins, so you can read a column straight down. A price is shown only when people have actually traded it: enough money changed hands, and the buy and sell prices are close. If almost nobody has bet a market, the number sitting there is not a forecast. Once a game kicks off it shows only the prices taken before kickoff. Live and settled prices aren't chances. If the three sources differ by more than 20 points on one game, the odd one out is held back. This week: 859,088 contracts on Kalshi and $60,368 on Polymarket across 1 games.

Starters Who Will Not Play

Listed starters who will not play, and a quarterback who had that job and still will not play after the depth chart names someone else. Other reserves stay on the club's injury report. Both lists refresh daily at midnight Eastern.

• ARI @ LAARI Andrew Wingard FS · Out · KneeARI Jeremiyah Love RB · Out · Ankle
• BAL @ CLEBAL Cam Jurgens C · Out · ConcussionBAL Lamar Jackson QB · Out · Ankle · grade 60 out of 100
• BUF @ LVLV Tonka Hemingway RDE · Out · Concussion · grade 50 out of 100
• CAR @ PHICAR Taylor Moton RT · Out · Illness · grade 57 out of 100CAR Tershawn Wharton RDE · Out · Neck · grade 72 out of 100CAR Trevor Etienne PR · Injured Reserve · Ankle · grade 44 out of 100PHI Jalen Hurts QB · Out · Calf · grade 72 out of 100PHI Saquon Barkley RB · Out · Hamstring · grade 72 out of 100
• CHI @ ATLCHI Kyler Gordon NB · Out · Calf · grade 56 out of 100CHI T.J. Edwards MLB · Out · HamstringATL C.J. Henderson LCB · Out · Groin
• HOU @ JAXHOU David Montgomery RB · Out · GroinHOU Henry To'oTo'o WLB · Injured Reserve · ShoulderHOU Jalen Pitre NB · Out · Shoulder · grade 69 out of 100JAX Montaric Brown RCB · Out · Hamstring · grade 66 out of 100JAX Ross Matiscik LS · Out · Shoulder · grade 53 out of 100
• LAC @ KCLAC Derwin James Jr. SS · Out · HamstringLAC Donte Jackson RCB · Out · Hamstring · grade 59 out of 100LAC Joe Alt RT · Out · Neck · grade 43 out of 100LAC Kayode Awosika LG · Out · FibulaKC Josh Simmons LT · Out · Back · grade 51 out of 100KC Rashee Rice WR · Out · Hamstring · grade 70 out of 100
• NO @ NYGNO Kaden Elliss LILB · Out · CalfNO Zach Wood LS · Injured Reserve · Calf · grade 50 out of 100NYG Tyler Nubin SS · Out · Neck · grade 57 out of 100
• NYJ @ NENYJ Breece Hall RB · Out · Quadricep · grade 71 out of 100NYJ Dylan Parham LG · Out · KneeNE A.J. Brown WR · Injured Reserve · AnkleNE Carlton Davis III LCB · Out · Neck
• PIT @ TBTB Antoine Winfield Jr. FS · Out · RibTB Baker Mayfield QB · Out · Thumb · grade 68 out of 100TB Benjamin Morrison RCB · Doubtful · Quadricep · grade 50 out of 100
• SEA @ DENSEA Drake Thomas LILB · Out · Ankle · grade 64 out of 100DEN Pat Surtain II LCB · Out · AnkleDEN Talanoa Hufanga SS · Out · Ankle · grade 65 out of 100
• TEN @ INDTEN Jordan Elliott RDT · Out · Not injury related - personal matterTEN Kevin Winston Jr. FS · Out · QuadricepIND Jaylon Carlies WLB · Out · Ribs · grade 32 out of 100
• WAS @ SFWAS Jacory Croskey-Merritt RB · Out · Groin · grade 67 out of 100SF Dre Greenlaw WLB · Suspension · SuspensionSF Marques Sigle SS · Out · Ankle · grade 46 out of 100SF Nick Bosa RDE · Out · Knee · grade 67 out of 100

Depth charts come from the league's own published charts, refreshed daily (latest snapshot 2026-10-18 12:02). Team sites draw their injury lists in the browser, so a build can't read a table off the page. The league-wide feeds are used instead, and that limit is stated here.

Where the Markets Disagree

Every priced game has the sportsbook, both exchanges and the pool within a few points of each other this week. That is a real finding, not missing data — there is simply no gap worth reporting.

More Headlines

Only stories that help with a pick: who's playing, who's hurt, the betting markets, fantasy usage, roster moves, and the weather. The same story isn't listed twice, and nothing already in the carousel above is repeated.

• Rams K Blake Grupe left SoFi Stadium with crutches and a brace on his legtransaction 2 sources: sports.yahoo.com, nbcsports.com
• Aaron Rodgers calls for NFL to examine Buccaneers' field over player-safety concernsinjury 2 sources: cbssports.com, sportingnews.com
• Let's overreact to NFL Week 6: Colts made a mistake on Daniel Jones?transaction Dan Graziano
• Gardner-Johnson expects fine after spitting incident in Bills' victorybetting Nick Suss
• Cowboys vs. Eagles odds: Opening lines for Week 7 matchupbetting
• Did Dak Prescott suffer injury after big hit vs. Packers?injury Drew Bishop
• How NFL Week 6 could make dubious fantasy football historyfantasy David Suggs
• Fantasy football week 6 recap - we keep winningfantasy Hayden Winks,Josh Norris,Matt Harmon
• On this day in 2025: Giants lost to DEN 32-332025-10-19 · away
• On this day in 2015: Giants lost to PHI 7-272015-10-19 · away

Week 6 Top Games

The closest lines on the board. These are the games the betting market thinks could go either way.

• CHI @ ATLCHI -1.5O/U 51.5 · 2026-10-18
• DAL @ GBDAL -1.5O/U 53.5 · 2026-10-18
• NO @ NYGNO -1.5O/U 46.5 · 2026-10-18
• SEA @ DENSEA -2.5O/U 40.5 · 2026-10-15
• HOU @ JAXJAX -2.5O/U 42.5 · 2026-10-18

Across the Site

A quick look at every section, using the same numbers that section's own page uses.