Report Card — Week 4
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C8-7-153% covered
We covered 53% of decided picks, and 57% once the close calls are evened out. That clears the 52% we need to break even, but not by enough for a B, so it earns a C. Of the 7 misses, 5 were our own error and 2 were bad luck.
A push is shown here; Yahoo's record leaves it out.
| Game | Pick | Line | Final | Cover | Cause | What happened |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT @ CLE | CLE | +2.5 | 24-27 | +5.5 | — | We took Browns +2.5 and Browns won 27-24. A clean cover, 6 points to the good. |
| IND @ WAS | WAS | +3.5 | 30-13 | -13.5 | Model error | We finished 14 points on the wrong side of the number, a real miss. Our projection had Commanders winning by about 1, and we missed the final margin by about 18 points. |
| ARI @ NYG | NYG | +1.5 | 24-36 | +13.5 | — | Giants cleared +1.5 with room to spare. |
| DAL @ HOU | HOU | -2.5 | 34-30 | -6.5 | Model error | We got this game wrong by 7 points against the spread. |
| GB @ TB | GB | -3.5 | 17-14 | -0.5 | Luck | We missed the line by just half a point, well inside one score, so this was mostly bad luck. |
| JAX @ CIN | JAX | +2.5 | 22-17 | +7.5 | — | We beat the spread by 8 points. Jaguars came out 2 ahead on turnovers. |
| LA @ PHI | LA | -3 | 24-20 | +1 | Lucky hit | A late score either way flips this one; we covered by 1 point. Rams lost the turnover battle by 2. |
| NE @ BUF | BUF | -6.5 | 29-26 | -9.5 | Model error | A clear miss, 10 points short of the line. |
| NYJ @ CHI | CHI | -3.5 | 12-23 | +7.5 | — | Bears gave the ball away 2 more times than Jets. |
| TEN @ BAL | TEN | +11.5 | 18-24 | +5.5 | — | Solid result: Titans finished 5.5 to the good. |
| MIA @ MIN | MIA | +10.5 | 10-15 | +5.5 | — | Turnovers went against Dolphins, minus 1. |
| DEN @ SF | DEN | +2.5 | 14-24 | -7.5 | Model error | 49ers covered by 7.5. That one is on the model, not the bounces. |
| KC @ LV | KC | -4.5 | 30-27 | -1.5 | Luck | One more score and this was a cover; we missed by 2 points. Turnovers favoured Chiefs, plus 2. |
| LAC @ SEA | SEA | -7 | 23-30 | push | — | Seahawks landed exactly on the number, so the pick is a push. |
| DET @ CAR | DET | -3.5 | 26-32 | -9.5 | Model error | This one was on us: we were 10 points wrong against the line. |
| ATL @ NO | ATL | +2.5 | 45-24 | +23.5 | — | That cleared the number by 24 points. |
Changed afterward
- 2026-10-06: Team rankings now build each position group from the players who actually took the snaps, with fixes in #20 and #21 for players counted on the wrong club. (PR #19)
- 2026-10-08: We started storing extra player stats (Next Gen Stats, PFR advanced, charting), with nothing entering the grades or the picks yet; #23 fixed the loader crashing on start. (PR #22)
Explanations from the Score Model postmortems.