Pool Picks — Week 6
2026 Week 6 · spread model ats-grades+injuries/v1 · picks made Oct 18, 4:12 PM ET. Submitted to Yahoo 2026-10-16: all 1 unplayed picks match the model. Tiebreakers entered: WAS 23 / SF 28, DAL 27 / GB 26, most LA, fewest LAC. The pool scores every game against the spread, with no confidence points, so every game is worth the same. The number that matters is the line each pick is made against. Season so far: 52-38-1 against the spread, 1 still to play. Yahoo has us at 48-31, 2nd of 43: Yahoo leaves pushes off its record and grades every pick as entered, including games where our model had no pick saved before kickoff. Report card.
Our confidence is this model's own chance that the pick covers the spread. Yahoo public is something else: the share of everyone playing Yahoo Pro Football Pick'em across the country who took the same side. It is not how sure we are, and it isnot the people in this pool. Yahoo publishes one national split, the same figures in every pool.
It is still worth showing. You win a pool by being right when the people you play are wrong, and the national split is the closest look at that before the deadline. In a small group, your friends can sit well away from the country as a whole. What this pool's own members picked only shows up after picks lock, which is too late to use. The split shown was captured Oct 16, 7:13 PM ET, about 2 days ago — it moves as people pick.
| Game | Pick | Spread | Conf. | Yahoo % | Result | Checked |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEN @ IND | TEN | TEN +7 | 59.1% | 25% | Won 26–20 | Oct 18, 4:12 PM ET · after kickoff to kickoff |
| WAS @ SF | WAS | WAS +7.5 | 57.9% | 22% | not played | Oct 19, 2:17 AM ET · 18 hours to kickoff |
| NO @ NYG | NYG | NYG +1.5 | 57.3% | 68% | Lost 34–27 | Oct 18, 4:32 PM ET · after kickoff to kickoff |
| CAR @ PHI | CAR | CAR +1.5 | 55.5% | 51% | Won 25–14 | Oct 18, 4:32 PM ET · after kickoff to kickoff |
| BUF @ LV | BUF | BUF -5 | 55.4% | 72% | Lost 33–30 | Oct 18, 7:32 PM ET · after kickoff to kickoff |
| BAL @ CLE | BAL | BAL -4.5 | 54.9% | 66% | Lost 10–13 | Oct 18, 3:17 PM ET · after kickoff to kickoff |
| NYJ @ NE | NYJ | NYJ +7.5 | 53.8% | 33% | Won 19–26 | Oct 18, 4:12 PM ET · after kickoff to kickoff |
| LAC @ KC | KC | KC -8.5 | 52.9% | 59% | Won 6–22 | Oct 18, 7:32 PM ET · after kickoff to kickoff |
| CHI @ ATL | ATL | ATL +3 | 51.9% | 63% | Lost 31–23 | Oct 18, 4:12 PM ET · after kickoff to kickoff |
| ARI @ LA | LA | LA -12.5 | 51.7% | 50% | Lost 18–16 | Oct 18, 7:12 PM ET · after kickoff to kickoff |
| DAL @ GB | DAL | DAL +1.5 | 51.5% | 35% | Lost 13–23 | Oct 18, 11:57 PM ET · after kickoff to kickoff |
| PIT @ TB | TB | TB +2.5 | 51.4% | 32% | Lost 26–19 | Oct 18, 4:52 PM ET · after kickoff to kickoff |
| HOU @ JAX | HOU | HOU +2.5 | 50.3% | 23% | Won 34–31 | Oct 18, 12:07 PM ET · after kickoff to kickoff |
Before the deadline
Every pick is read again close to kickoff, against the pool's current spread, the latest injury report and where the market has moved, and is then either kept or changed. All 13 picks were checked again Oct 19, 2:17 AM ET and none of them moved: same pool line, same injury report, same market.
This matters more than it sounds. Every test here used the final line, which already includes the week's late news. That is why injuries looked worthless in those tests. The line we have on Tuesday does not include that news yet, so what shows up in between is the one thing not already baked into the number. Yahoo stops taking changes five minutes before each game. This check runs an hour out, to leave room.
Previous weeks
Every week the picks were made, kept as they stood and graded against the line they were picked into — not against where the line closed, because the pool scores the number on the card at the time.
Week 5
| Game | Pick | Line | Conf. | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV @ NE | LV | LV +3.5 | 59.8% | Lost 17–45 |
| DEN @ LAC | DEN | DEN -3.5 | 59.6% | Won 23–17 |
| TB @ DAL | TB | TB +8.5 | 59.4% | Won 24–16 |
| IND @ PIT | PIT | PIT -2.5 | 57.1% | Won 22–34 |
| NYG @ WAS | NYG | NYG +3.5 | 56.7% | Won 27–27 |
| BUF @ LA | BUF | BUF +3 | 56.5% | Won 37–34 |
| HOU @ TEN | TEN | TEN +7.5 | 54.8% | Lost 26–3 |
| CIN @ MIA | MIA | MIA +7.5 | 53.7% | Won 31–24 |
| CLE @ NYJ | NYJ | NYJ -2.5 | 53.6% | Won 12–17 |
| BAL @ ATL | ATL | ATL -3.5 | 53.5% | Lost 30–23 |
| CHI @ GB | CHI | CHI -2.5 | 53.5% | Lost 7–31 |
| DET @ ARI | DET | DET -5.5 | 53.1% | Won 45–21 |
| SF @ SEA | SF | SF +3 | 52.1% | Won 32–29 |
| PHI @ JAX | PHI | PHI +7.5 | 51.5% | Won 17–19 |
| MIN @ NO | NO | NO +1.5 | 50.5% | Lost 23–13 |
Week 4
| Game | Pick | Line | Conf. | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL @ NO | ATL | ATL +2.5 | 63.7% | Won 45–24 |
| KC @ LV | KC | KC -4.5 | 61.4% | Lost 30–27 |
| MIA @ MIN | MIA | MIA +10.5 | 60.3% | Won 10–15 |
| ARI @ NYG | NYG | NYG +1.5 | 59.6% | Won 24–36 |
| NYJ @ CHI | CHI | CHI -3.5 | 57.2% | Won 12–23 |
| LA @ PHI | LA | LA -3 | 56.0% | Won 24–20 |
| DET @ CAR | DET | DET -3.5 | 55.6% | Lost 26–32 |
| JAX @ CIN | JAX | JAX +2.5 | 55.1% | Won 22–17 |
| DAL @ HOU | HOU | HOU -2.5 | 54.5% | Lost 34–30 |
| IND @ WAS | WAS | WAS +3.5 | 54.3% | Lost 30–13 |
| LAC @ SEA | SEA | SEA -7 | 53.1% | Push 23–30 |
| TEN @ BAL | TEN | TEN +11.5 | 52.1% | Won 18–24 |
| GB @ TB | GB | GB -3.5 | 52.1% | Lost 17–14 |
| DEN @ SF | DEN | DEN +2.5 | 51.2% | Lost 14–24 |
| NE @ BUF | BUF | BUF -6.5 | 50.7% | Lost 29–26 |
| PIT @ CLE | CLE | CLE +2.5 | 50.0% | Won 24–27 |
Week 3
| Game | Pick | Line | Conf. | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ @ DET | DET | DET -6.5 | 65.7% | Won 24–31 |
| CAR @ CLE | CLE | CLE +2.5 | 60.5% | Won 18–21 |
| MIN @ TB | TB | TB +1.5 | 60.4% | Lost 23–16 |
| KC @ MIA | MIA | MIA +11.5 | 59.2% | Lost 24–10 |
| PHI @ CHI | CHI | CHI +4.5 | 57.2% | Won 7–27 |
| LA @ DEN | DEN | DEN +2.5 | 57.0% | Won 26–30 |
| ATL @ GB | ATL | ATL +5.5 | 57.0% | Won 35–14 |
| TEN @ NYG | NYG | NYG -2.5 | 56.1% | Won 7–12 |
| LV @ NO | NO | NO -3 | 55.9% | Lost 35–27 |
| BAL @ DAL | BAL | BAL -3.5 | 55.9% | Lost 34–31 |
| LAC @ BUF | BUF | BUF -7 | 55.1% | Won 16–24 |
| HOU @ IND | HOU | HOU -2.5 | 55.0% | Lost 17–19 |
| ARI @ SF | ARI | ARI +8.5 | 54.5% | Won 30–36 |
| NE @ JAX | JAX | JAX -3 | 53.6% | Won 6–35 |
| SEA @ WAS | WAS | WAS +7 | 52.9% | Won 31–33 |
| CIN @ PIT | PIT | PIT +3.5 | 52.7% | Won 27–30 |
Week 2
| Game | Pick | Line | Conf. | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB @ NYJ | GB | GB -3.5 | 71.9% | Lost 20–17 |
| MIA @ SF | MIA | MIA +13.5 | 67.9% | Lost 13–35 |
| SEA @ ARI | SEA | SEA -4 | 67.9% | Won 31–7 |
| JAX @ DEN | DEN | DEN -2.5 | 62.0% | Won 13–20 |
| WAS @ DAL | WAS | WAS +4 | 60.6% | Lost 20–37 |
| CIN @ HOU | HOU | HOU -2.5 | 58.9% | Lost 20–6 |
| IND @ KC | IND | IND +6.5 | 58.1% | Won 30–33 |
| NO @ BAL | NO | NO +8.5 | 57.8% | Won 24–17 |
| PHI @ TEN | TEN | TEN +7 | 57.8% | Won 24–20 |
| PIT @ NE | NE | NE -4.5 | 55.8% | Won 3–20 |
| LV @ LAC | LAC | LAC -6.5 | 55.6% | Lost 26–14 |
| MIN @ CHI | CHI | CHI -5.5 | 54.2% | Lost 9–3 |
| CLE @ TB | TB | TB -8.5 | 53.4% | Lost 23–19 |
| NYG @ LA | NYG | NYG +7.5 | 51.3% | Lost 6–28 |
| CAR @ ATL | CAR | CAR -2.5 | 50.8% | Won 34–3 |
| DET @ BUF | BUF | BUF -4.5 | 50.0% | Won 31–41 |
Week 1
| Game | Pick | Line | Conf. | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ @ TEN | TEN | TEN -1.5 | 62.1% | Lost 23–10 |
| MIA @ LV | MIA | MIA +3.5 | 59.6% | Lost 13–27 |
| CLE @ JAX | JAX | JAX -8.5 | 57.0% | Won 10–34 |
| GB @ MIN | MIN | MIN -1.5 | 56.9% | Won 22–39 |
| BAL @ IND | BAL | BAL -3.5 | 56.4% | Won 41–23 |
| CHI @ CAR | CHI | CHI -2.5 | 56.3% | Won 59–37 |
| ATL @ PIT | PIT | PIT -3.5 | 56.0% | Won 13–20 |
| DEN @ KC | DEN | DEN +3 | 54.6% | Lost 10–31 |
| DAL @ NYG | NYG | NYG +2.5 | 54.1% | Won 20–28 |
| BUF @ HOU | BUF | BUF -1.5 | 54.0% | Won 36–31 |
| SF @ LA | SF | SF +3.5 | 53.9% | Won 27–7 |
| TB @ CIN | CIN | CIN -3.5 | 53.8% | Won 27–33 |
| ARI @ LAC | LAC | LAC -10 | 52.6% | Lost 26–14 |
| NE @ SEA | SEA | SEA -3.5 | 52.5% | Lost 10–13 |
| WAS @ PHI | WAS | WAS +5 | 52.0% | Won 22–24 |
| NO @ DET | DET | DET -7 | 51.7% | Lost 30–31 |