Playoff Picture
Where the 2026 season is heading, from 5,000 simulated seasons. Every game still left is played out from the two clubs' real team grades, which already carry last season, so this picks up from where things stand rather than starting over. Each simulated season then goes through the seeding rules. A percentage is how often that result actually came up. Games through week 6 stay as they were played. They are not played out again.
AFC — Projected Seeds
Make is how often they reached the playoffs. Div is how often they won the division. Proj is the projected record. SOS is the average grade of the opponents still left — a higher number is a harder slate.
| Seed | Team | Make | Div | Proj | SOS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 95% | 90% | 11.9-5.1 | 52.3 |
| 2 | Kansas City Chiefs | 92% | 62% | 11.7-5.3 | 55.0 |
| 3 | Buffalo Bills | 90% | 68% | 11.7-5.3 | 52.8 |
| 4 | Denver Broncos | 82% | 33% | 11.1-5.9 | 52.4 |
| 5 | New England Patriots | 73% | 32% | 10.1-6.9 | 53.6 |
| 6 | Baltimore Ravens | 69% | 42% | 10.4-6.6 | 54.7 |
| 7 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 55% | 28% | 9.6-7.4 | 53.6 |
- Kansas City Chiefsmost often the 1st seed
- Buffalo Billsmost often the 1st seed
- Denver Broncosmost often the 5th seed
- Baltimore Ravensmost often the 4th seed
- Pittsburgh Steelersmost often the 4th seed
On the bubble
One line each: the club, its projected record, the average grade of the opponents still left, and how often it made the playoffs.
- Cincinnati Bengals9.5-7.551.549%
- Las Vegas Raiders8.6-8.455.029%
- Cleveland Browns8.4-8.653.027%
- Houston Texans8.0-9.054.623%
NFC — Projected Seeds
Make is how often they reached the playoffs. Div is how often they won the division. Proj is the projected record. SOS is the average grade of the opponents still left — a higher number is a harder slate.
| Seed | Team | Make | Div | Proj | SOS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Francisco 49ers | 95% | 79% | 12.2-4.8 | 54.2 |
| 2 | Detroit Lions | 84% | 47% | 10.9-6.1 | 52.6 |
| 3 | Minnesota Vikings | 80% | 34% | 10.7-6.3 | 55.8 |
| 4 | New York Giants | 74% | 63% | 10.0-7.0 | 56.2 |
| 5 | Seattle Seahawks | 58% | 13% | 9.6-7.4 | 55.2 |
| 6 | Los Angeles Rams | 49% | 9% | 9.1-8.0 | 53.1 |
| 7 | Green Bay Packers | 48% | 11% | 9.2-7.8 | 56.0 |
- Detroit Lionsmost often the 1st seed
- Minnesota Vikingsmost often the 5th seed
- New York Giantsmost often the 3rd seed
- Los Angeles Ramsmost often the 7th seed
On the bubble
One line each: the club, its projected record, the average grade of the opponents still left, and how often it made the playoffs.
- Atlanta Falcons7.8-9.253.044%
- Chicago Bears9.2-7.856.344%
- Philadelphia Eagles8.8-8.253.743%
- Carolina Panthers7.6-9.453.442%
What this is not. A projection built on a rating that does not beat the betting market cannot beat the market either. These are the odds implied by what this site measures, stated so they can be checked against what actually happens — the projection is stored with the week it was made in for exactly that reason. Seeding within each simulated season uses record, then head-to-head, then division record; the deeper steps of the real tiebreaker ladder are not implemented, and are not silently approximated.
2026 — What the Results Have Already Settled
AFC
| Seed | Team | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | KC (AFC West winner) | 100.0% |
| 2 | BUF (AFC East winner) | 83.3% |
| 3 | JAX (AFC South winner) | 66.7% |
| 4 | CLE (AFC North winner) | 66.7% |
| 5 | BAL (wildcard) | 66.7% |
| 6 | DEN (wildcard) | 66.7% |
| 7 | NE (wildcard) | 66.7% |
NFC
| Seed | Team | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SF (NFC West winner) | 100.0% |
| 2 | MIN (NFC North winner) | 100.0% |
| 3 | CAR (NFC South winner) | 60.0% |
| 4 | NYG (NFC East winner) | 58.3% |
| 5 | GB (wildcard) | 66.7% |
| 6 | CHI (wildcard) | 66.7% |
| 7 | DET (wildcard) | 60.0% |
2025 — Completed, and What This Engine Was Validated Against
Two real ties in this exact bracket (NE/DEN for the #1 AFC seed, LA/SF for wildcard order) go deeper than the tiebreaker level implemented -- see the note on each row and docs/19-playoff-engine.md.
AFC
| Seed | Team | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | NE (AFC East winner) | 82.4% * |
| 2 | DEN (AFC West winner) | 82.4% * |
| 3 | JAX (AFC South winner) | 76.5% |
| 4 | PIT (AFC North winner) | 58.8% |
| 5 | HOU (wildcard) | 70.6% |
| 6 | BUF (wildcard) | 70.6% |
| 7 | LAC (wildcard) | 64.7% |
NFC
| Seed | Team | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | SEA (NFC West winner) | 82.4% |
| 2 | CHI (NFC North winner) | 64.7% |
| 3 | PHI (NFC East winner) | 64.7% |
| 4 | CAR (NFC South winner) | 47.1% |
| 5 | LA (wildcard) | 70.6% |
| 6 | SF (wildcard) | 70.6% |
| 7 | GB (wildcard) | 55.9% |
* tiebreaker note present on this row -- see docs/19-playoff-engine.md