Our Projected Scores
How the projections graded
Week 5 Week 5 of 2026, score-ridge/v1: 15 of 15 games have a projection from before kickoff. Projected margin MAE is 10.67 points and RMSE is 14.27; the closing spread on the same games has MAE 10.40 and RMSE 13.04. Projected total MAE is 11.91 points and RMSE is 12.77; the closing total on the same games has MAE 10.17 and RMSE 10.87. The projection and the closing spread disagreed on 14 games, and 8 landed. 14 is below the 30-game floor used before a rate is read against 52.4%, so this is not that test. The projection and the closing total disagreed on 15 games, and 5 landed. 15 is below the 30-game floor used before a rate is read against 52.4%, so this is not that test. On 1 game the spread stored with the projection differs from the closing spread by at least 0.25 points. The grade uses the closing spread. The walk-forward measurement on 2199 games, 2018-2026, remains the bar: margin disagreement 50.07%, total disagreement 49.67%, projected margin MAE 10.23 against the closing line's 9.79. Both disagreement rates sit below the 52.4% break-even at -110. This grade does not replace that measurement.
Season through week 5 Through week 5 of 2026, score-ridge/v1: 46 of 79 games have a projection from before kickoff. Projected margin MAE is 8.11 points and RMSE is 11.13; the closing spread on the same games has MAE 8.20 and RMSE 10.99. Projected total MAE is 12.00 points and RMSE is 13.34; the closing total on the same games has MAE 10.35 and RMSE 11.60. The projection and the closing spread disagreed on 41 games, and 28 landed (68.29%). 52.4% is the -110 break-even. This live count does not replace the walk-forward result. The projection and the closing total disagreed on 45 games, and 18 landed (40.00%). 52.4% is the -110 break-even. This live count does not replace the walk-forward result. On 4 games the spread stored with the projection differs from the closing spread by at least 0.25 points. The grade uses the closing spread. 1 game had only a post-kickoff snapshot, left out. 32 games had no snapshot, left out. Weeks 1 and 2 are final with no pre-kick snapshot, so those weeks are not in these averages. The walk-forward measurement on 2199 games, 2018-2026, remains the bar: margin disagreement 50.07%, total disagreement 49.67%, projected margin MAE 10.23 against the closing line's 9.79. Both disagreement rates sit below the 52.4% break-even at -110. This grade does not replace that measurement.
One section per week (how the model works), so a finished week can be checked against what happened. Click a week to open it, and any column header to sort. The margin is still our ridge model. The score is that margin split around the total. The most-likely total is the posted total whenever a line is up. Blending our own totals head toward that line was measured, and no mix beat the line: on the walk-forward through 2026 the line's total error was 10.348 points and the raw head's was 11.047, and picking over or under against the line won 48.92% of the time, under the 52.4% a real bet needs. A game with no posted total says "no line posted" and uses the ridge head instead of a made-up number. Rows marked "ridge head" were stored earlier, as score-ridge/v1, and are left as they were. The margin measurement is unchanged: on 2199 games from 2018 to 2026 our margin missed by 10.23 points and the posted line missed by 9.79. Disagreeing with that line won 50.07% of the time. Shown so you can see it, never as a pick.
Week 614 games · 14 games
Actual Score, Margin Miss and Total Miss fill in once a game is played -- 'not played yet' and a dash are the honest state before then, not a blank cell hiding missing data.
| Matchup | Our Projected Score | Our Spread | Market Spread | Most likely total | Market Total (O/U) | Actual Score | Margin Miss | Total Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams | Arizona Cardinals 20.6 – 30.9 Los Angeles Rams | Los Angeles Rams -10.2 | Los Angeles Rams -12.5 | 51.5 | 51.5 | Arizona Cardinals 18 – 16 Los Angeles Rams | 12.2 pts | 17.5 pts |
| Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns | Baltimore Ravens 22.3 – 17.2 Cleveland Browns | Baltimore Ravens -5.1 | Baltimore Ravens -3.0 | 39.5 | 39.5 | Baltimore Ravens 10 – 13 Cleveland Browns | 8.1 pts | 16.5 pts |
| Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders | Buffalo Bills 30.3 – 23.2 Las Vegas Raiders | Buffalo Bills -7.1 | Buffalo Bills -5.5 | 53.5 | 53.5 | Buffalo Bills 33 – 30 Las Vegas Raiders | 4.1 pts | 9.5 pts |
| Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles | Carolina Panthers 21.8 – 17.7 Philadelphia Eagles | Carolina Panthers -4.1 | Carolina Panthers -3.0 | 39.5 | 39.5 | Carolina Panthers 25 – 14 Philadelphia Eagles | 6.9 pts | 0.5 pts |
| Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons | Chicago Bears 25.2 – 26.3 Atlanta Falcons | Atlanta Falcons -1.1 | Chicago Bears -1.5 | 51.5 | 51.5 | Chicago Bears 31 – 23 Atlanta Falcons | 9.1 pts | 2.5 pts |
| Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers | Dallas Cowboys 27.0 – 26.5 Green Bay Packers | Dallas Cowboys -0.6 | Dallas Cowboys -1.5 | 53.5 | 53.5 | Dallas Cowboys 13 – 23 Green Bay Packers | 10.6 pts | 17.5 pts |
| Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars | Houston Texans 18.7 – 23.8 Jacksonville Jaguars | Jacksonville Jaguars -5.1 | Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 | 42.5 | 42.5 | Houston Texans 34 – 31 Jacksonville Jaguars | 8.1 pts | 22.5 pts |
| Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs | Los Angeles Chargers 15.0 – 26.5 Kansas City Chiefs | Kansas City Chiefs -11.5 | Kansas City Chiefs -7.5 | 41.5 | 41.5 | Los Angeles Chargers 6 – 22 Kansas City Chiefs | 4.5 pts | 13.5 pts |
| New Orleans Saints at New York Giants | New Orleans Saints 21.2 – 25.3 New York Giants | New York Giants -4.0 | New Orleans Saints -1.5 | 46.5 | 46.5 | New Orleans Saints 34 – 27 New York Giants | 11.0 pts | 14.5 pts |
| New York Jets at New England Patriots | New York Jets 17.0 – 26.5 New England Patriots | New England Patriots -9.6 | New England Patriots -7.5 | 43.5 | 43.5 | New York Jets 19 – 26 New England Patriots | 2.6 pts | 1.5 pts |
| Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Pittsburgh Steelers 20.8 – 17.7 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.1 | Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 | 38.5 | 38.5 | Pittsburgh Steelers 26 – 19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3.9 pts | 6.5 pts |
| Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos | Seattle Seahawks 20.5 – 20.0 Denver Broncos | Seattle Seahawks -0.5 | Seattle Seahawks -2.5 | 40.5 | 40.5 | Seattle Seahawks 14 – 17 Denver Broncos | 3.5 pts | 9.5 pts |
| Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts | Tennessee Titans 19.3 – 24.2 Indianapolis Colts | Indianapolis Colts -5.0 | Indianapolis Colts -6.5 | 43.5 | 43.5 | Tennessee Titans 26 – 20 Indianapolis Colts | 11.0 pts | 2.5 pts |
| Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers | Washington Commanders 20.9 – 31.6 San Francisco 49ers | San Francisco 49ers -10.7 | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 | 52.5 | 52.5 | not played yet | — | — |
Week 515 games · 15 games
Actual Score, Margin Miss and Total Miss fill in once a game is played -- 'not played yet' and a dash are the honest state before then, not a blank cell hiding missing data.
| Matchup | Our Projected Score | Our Spread | Market Spread | Most likely total | Market Total (O/U) | Actual Score | Margin Miss | Total Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons | Baltimore Ravens 21.0 – 24.8 Atlanta Falcons | Atlanta Falcons -3.8 | Atlanta Falcons -3.5 | 45.7 · ridge head | 44.5 | Baltimore Ravens 30 – 23 Atlanta Falcons | 10.8 pts | 7.3 pts |
| Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams | Buffalo Bills 26.6 – 24.3 Los Angeles Rams | Buffalo Bills -2.3 | Los Angeles Rams -3.5 | 51.0 · ridge head | 55.5 | Buffalo Bills 37 – 34 Los Angeles Rams | 0.7 pts | 20.0 pts |
| Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers | Chicago Bears 24.3 – 19.6 Green Bay Packers | Chicago Bears -4.7 | Chicago Bears -1.5 | 43.9 · ridge head | 46.5 | Chicago Bears 7 – 31 Green Bay Packers | 28.7 pts | 5.9 pts |
| Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins | Cincinnati Bengals 23.8 – 19.7 Miami Dolphins | Cincinnati Bengals -4.1 | Cincinnati Bengals -7.0 | 43.5 · ridge head | 44.5 | Cincinnati Bengals 31 – 24 Miami Dolphins | 2.9 pts | 11.5 pts |
| Cleveland Browns at New York Jets | Cleveland Browns 19.6 – 21.2 New York Jets | New York Jets -1.6 | New York Jets -2.5 | 40.8 · ridge head | 38.5 | Cleveland Browns 12 – 17 New York Jets | 3.4 pts | 11.8 pts |
| Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers | Denver Broncos 27.0 – 19.3 Los Angeles Chargers | Denver Broncos -7.7 | Denver Broncos -3.5 | 46.3 · ridge head | 42.5 | Denver Broncos 23 – 17 Los Angeles Chargers | 1.7 pts | 6.3 pts |
| Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals | Detroit Lions 28.3 – 21.6 Arizona Cardinals | Detroit Lions -6.7 | Detroit Lions -5.5 | 49.8 · ridge head | 55.5 | Detroit Lions 45 – 21 Arizona Cardinals | 17.3 pts | 16.2 pts |
| Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans | Houston Texans 22.7 – 21.3 Tennessee Titans | Houston Texans -1.4 | Houston Texans -6.5 | 44.1 · ridge head | 37.5 | Houston Texans 26 – 3 Tennessee Titans | 21.6 pts | 15.1 pts |
| Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers | Indianapolis Colts 20.4 – 25.0 Pittsburgh Steelers | Pittsburgh Steelers -4.6 | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.0 | 45.5 · ridge head | 41.5 | Indianapolis Colts 22 – 34 Pittsburgh Steelers | 7.4 pts | 10.5 pts |
| Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots | Las Vegas Raiders 21.9 – 19.7 New England Patriots | Las Vegas Raiders -2.2 | New England Patriots -3.5 | 41.6 · ridge head | 45.5 | Las Vegas Raiders 17 – 45 New England Patriots | 30.2 pts | 20.4 pts |
| Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints | Minnesota Vikings 26.0 – 21.7 New Orleans Saints | Minnesota Vikings -4.4 | Minnesota Vikings -2.5 | 47.7 · ridge head | 41.5 | Minnesota Vikings 23 – 13 New Orleans Saints | 5.6 pts | 11.7 pts |
| New York Giants at Washington Commanders | New York Giants 23.5 – 21.0 Washington Commanders | New York Giants -2.5 | Washington Commanders -3.5 | 44.5 · ridge head | 41.5 | New York Giants 27 – 27 Washington Commanders | 2.5 pts | 9.5 pts |
| Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars | Philadelphia Eagles 16.7 – 26.0 Jacksonville Jaguars | Jacksonville Jaguars -9.3 | Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5 | 42.8 · ridge head | 41.5 | Philadelphia Eagles 17 – 19 Jacksonville Jaguars | 7.3 pts | 6.8 pts |
| San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks | San Francisco 49ers 21.5 – 23.0 Seattle Seahawks | Seattle Seahawks -1.5 | Seattle Seahawks -3.0 | 44.5 · ridge head | 46.5 | San Francisco 49ers 32 – 29 Seattle Seahawks | 4.5 pts | 16.5 pts |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21.0 – 28.1 Dallas Cowboys | Dallas Cowboys -7.1 | Dallas Cowboys -9.5 | 49.1 · ridge head | 49.5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 – 16 Dallas Cowboys | 15.1 pts | 9.1 pts |
Week 416 games · 16 games
Actual Score, Margin Miss and Total Miss fill in once a game is played -- 'not played yet' and a dash are the honest state before then, not a blank cell hiding missing data.
| Matchup | Our Projected Score | Our Spread | Market Spread | Most likely total | Market Total (O/U) | Actual Score | Margin Miss | Total Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants | Arizona Cardinals 22.4 – 23.2 New York Giants | New York Giants -0.8 | Arizona Cardinals -2.5 | 45.5 · ridge head | 44.5 | Arizona Cardinals 24 – 36 New York Giants | 11.2 pts | 14.5 pts |
| Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints | Atlanta Falcons 24.6 – 23.5 New Orleans Saints | Atlanta Falcons -1.1 | New Orleans Saints -1.5 | 48.1 · ridge head | 47.5 | Atlanta Falcons 45 – 24 New Orleans Saints | 19.9 pts | 20.9 pts |
| Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans | Dallas Cowboys 21.5 – 22.9 Houston Texans | Houston Texans -1.3 | Houston Texans -3.0 | 44.4 · ridge head | 48.5 | Dallas Cowboys 34 – 30 Houston Texans | 5.3 pts | 19.6 pts |
| Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers | Denver Broncos 18.9 – 25.4 San Francisco 49ers | San Francisco 49ers -6.6 | San Francisco 49ers -3.0 | 44.3 · ridge head | 48.5 | Denver Broncos 14 – 24 San Francisco 49ers | 3.4 pts | 6.3 pts |
| Detroit Lions at Carolina Panthers | Detroit Lions 26.4 – 23.6 Carolina Panthers | Detroit Lions -2.9 | Detroit Lions -4.5 | 50.0 · ridge head | 52.5 | Detroit Lions 26 – 32 Carolina Panthers | 8.9 pts | 8.0 pts |
| Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Green Bay Packers 23.6 – 23.3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Green Bay Packers -0.2 | Green Bay Packers -3.0 | 46.9 · ridge head | 38.5 | Green Bay Packers 17 – 14 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 2.8 pts | 15.9 pts |
| Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders | Indianapolis Colts 26.1 – 26.9 Washington Commanders | Washington Commanders -0.7 | Indianapolis Colts -4.5 | 53.0 · ridge head | 46.5 | Indianapolis Colts 30 – 13 Washington Commanders | 17.7 pts | 10.0 pts |
| Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals | Jacksonville Jaguars 23.3 – 22.4 Cincinnati Bengals | Jacksonville Jaguars -0.9 | Cincinnati Bengals -2.5 | 45.6 · ridge head | 51.5 | Jacksonville Jaguars 22 – 17 Cincinnati Bengals | 4.1 pts | 6.6 pts |
| Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders | Kansas City Chiefs 26.3 – 20.5 Las Vegas Raiders | Kansas City Chiefs -5.8 | Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 | 46.8 · ridge head | 47.5 | Kansas City Chiefs 30 – 27 Las Vegas Raiders | 2.8 pts | 10.2 pts |
| Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks | Los Angeles Chargers 16.6 – 28.2 Seattle Seahawks | Seattle Seahawks -11.6 | Seattle Seahawks -7.0 | 44.7 · ridge head | 42.5 | Los Angeles Chargers 23 – 30 Seattle Seahawks | 4.6 pts | 8.3 pts |
| Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles | Los Angeles Rams 24.2 – 19.8 Philadelphia Eagles | Los Angeles Rams -4.4 | Los Angeles Rams -3.5 | 43.9 · ridge head | 42.5 | Los Angeles Rams 24 – 20 Philadelphia Eagles | 0.4 pts | 0.1 pts |
| Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings | Miami Dolphins 20.0 – 29.8 Minnesota Vikings | Minnesota Vikings -9.7 | Minnesota Vikings -10.0 | 49.8 · ridge head | 38.5 | Miami Dolphins 10 – 15 Minnesota Vikings | 4.7 pts | 24.8 pts |
| New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills | New England Patriots 16.5 – 26.6 Buffalo Bills | Buffalo Bills -10.0 | Buffalo Bills -7.0 | 43.1 · ridge head | 49.5 | New England Patriots 29 – 26 Buffalo Bills | 13.0 pts | 11.9 pts |
| New York Jets at Chicago Bears | New York Jets 18.3 – 26.6 Chicago Bears | Chicago Bears -8.3 | Chicago Bears -3.5 | 44.8 · ridge head | 43.5 | New York Jets 12 – 23 Chicago Bears | 2.7 pts | 9.8 pts |
| Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns | Pittsburgh Steelers 20.7 – 21.1 Cleveland Browns | Cleveland Browns -0.5 | Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 | 41.8 · ridge head | 38.5 | Pittsburgh Steelers 24 – 27 Cleveland Browns | 2.5 pts | 9.2 pts |
| Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens | Tennessee Titans 17.6 – 28.6 Baltimore Ravens | Baltimore Ravens -11.0 | Baltimore Ravens -11.5 | 46.2 · ridge head | 42.5 | Tennessee Titans 18 – 24 Baltimore Ravens | 5.0 pts | 4.2 pts |
Week 316 games · 16 games
Actual Score, Margin Miss and Total Miss fill in once a game is played -- 'not played yet' and a dash are the honest state before then, not a blank cell hiding missing data.
| Matchup | Our Projected Score | Our Spread | Market Spread | Most likely total | Market Total (O/U) | Actual Score | Margin Miss | Total Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers | Arizona Cardinals 15.3 – 26.7 San Francisco 49ers | San Francisco 49ers -11.4 | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 | 42.0 · ridge head | 48.5 | Arizona Cardinals 30 – 36 San Francisco 49ers | 5.4 pts | 24.0 pts |
| Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers | Atlanta Falcons 20.9 – 23.4 Green Bay Packers | Green Bay Packers -2.4 | Green Bay Packers -4.5 | 44.3 · ridge head | 43.5 | Atlanta Falcons 35 – 14 Green Bay Packers | 23.4 pts | 4.7 pts |
| Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys | Baltimore Ravens 24.6 – 23.4 Dallas Cowboys | Baltimore Ravens -1.1 | Baltimore Ravens -3.0 | 48.0 · ridge head | 53.5 | Baltimore Ravens 34 – 31 Dallas Cowboys | 1.9 pts | 17.0 pts |
| Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns | Carolina Panthers 24.8 – 25.7 Cleveland Browns | Cleveland Browns -0.9 | Carolina Panthers -2.5 | 50.5 · ridge head | 41.5 | Carolina Panthers 18 – 21 Cleveland Browns | 2.1 pts | 11.5 pts |
| Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers | Cincinnati Bengals 21.1 – 19.1 Pittsburgh Steelers | Cincinnati Bengals -2.0 | Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 | 40.2 · ridge head | 42.5 | Cincinnati Bengals 27 – 30 Pittsburgh Steelers | 5.0 pts | 16.8 pts |
| Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts | Houston Texans 23.9 – 23.4 Indianapolis Colts | Houston Texans -0.6 | Houston Texans -1.5 | 47.3 · ridge head | 41.5 | Houston Texans 17 – 19 Indianapolis Colts | 2.6 pts | 11.3 pts |
| Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphins | Kansas City Chiefs 25.9 – 18.7 Miami Dolphins | Kansas City Chiefs -7.2 | Kansas City Chiefs -10.0 | 44.6 · ridge head | 45.5 | Kansas City Chiefs 24 – 10 Miami Dolphins | 6.8 pts | 10.6 pts |
| Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills | Los Angeles Chargers 19.6 – 30.6 Buffalo Bills | Buffalo Bills -11.0 | Buffalo Bills -7.0 | 50.2 · ridge head | 50.5 | Los Angeles Chargers 16 – 24 Buffalo Bills | 3.0 pts | 10.2 pts |
| Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos | Los Angeles Rams 19.5 – 24.0 Denver Broncos | Denver Broncos -4.5 | Denver Broncos -1.5 | 43.5 · ridge head | 43.5 | Los Angeles Rams 26 – 30 Denver Broncos | 0.5 pts | 12.5 pts |
| Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans Saints | Las Vegas Raiders 23.0 – 26.2 New Orleans Saints | New Orleans Saints -3.2 | New Orleans Saints -3.5 | 49.2 · ridge head | 43.5 | Las Vegas Raiders 35 – 27 New Orleans Saints | 11.2 pts | 12.8 pts |
| Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Minnesota Vikings 22.8 – 21.9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Minnesota Vikings -0.8 | Minnesota Vikings -1.5 | 44.7 · ridge head | 42.5 | Minnesota Vikings 23 – 16 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 6.2 pts | 5.7 pts |
| New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars | New England Patriots 17.5 – 21.5 Jacksonville Jaguars | Jacksonville Jaguars -3.9 | Jacksonville Jaguars -3.0 | 39.0 · ridge head | 46.5 | New England Patriots 6 – 35 Jacksonville Jaguars | 25.1 pts | 2.0 pts |
| New York Jets at Detroit Lions | New York Jets 20.4 – 31.2 Detroit Lions | Detroit Lions -10.8 | Detroit Lions -7.0 | 51.6 · ridge head | 49.5 | New York Jets 24 – 31 Detroit Lions | 3.8 pts | 3.4 pts |
| Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears | Philadelphia Eagles 22.7 – 23.9 Chicago Bears | Chicago Bears -1.2 | Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 | 46.5 · ridge head | 42.5 | Philadelphia Eagles 7 – 27 Chicago Bears | 18.8 pts | 12.5 pts |
| Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders | Seattle Seahawks 27.5 – 18.1 Washington Commanders | Seattle Seahawks -9.5 | Seattle Seahawks -8.5 | 45.6 · ridge head | 40.5 | Seattle Seahawks 31 – 33 Washington Commanders | 11.5 pts | 18.4 pts |
| Tennessee Titans at New York Giants | Tennessee Titans 19.3 – 23.9 New York Giants | New York Giants -4.7 | New York Giants -2.5 | 43.2 · ridge head | 37.5 | Tennessee Titans 7 – 12 New York Giants | 0.3 pts | 24.2 pts |